Why do rigs go out?
Miners are currently going through one of the most difficult periods in terms of profits in recent years.
According to the latest data, hash revenue for larger public miners has fallen from about $55 per PH per day in the third quarter to about $35 today. Their average total cost is around $44 per PH per day. This means that much of the industry is currently mining at a loss.
At the same time, the total hashrate of the network is around 1.0 to 1.1 ZH per second, which means that the competition for each block is close to historical highs.
The biggest problem is ROI. Even new ASIC devices today have a payback period of more than 1000 days, while the next halving is in about 850 days. If conditions do not change, many who buy equipment today may find it difficult to recoup their investment before the next halving.
Source: cointelegraph
What does the mining economy look like in 2026?
After the halving, all miners share a smaller amount of bitcoin reward.
Block reward has dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC in 2024. This means that the main source of income is halved overnight. With about 144 blocks per day, that’s roughly 450 BTC new bids per day plus fees.
At the same time, the network’s hashrate grew to more than 1.0 ZH. The result is a historically low hash rate, i.e. revenue in dollars per PH per day. It currently hovers around $35 to $38 per PH per day, which is approximately $0.03 to $0.04 per TH per day.
On the other hand, miners have to cover the costs for the operation to make sense, and it has to pass two tests.
The first is cash flow. The daily income must be higher than the daily costs with the current hash price and the price of electricity.
The second is the return on investment. The rig must realistically be able to recoup its price before the next halving or before it becomes obsolete.
These two indicators are the most important for most setups.
Source: cointelegraph
Why aren't the new rigs worth it either?
If you use the latest hardware, this is where things become even clearer.
The new generation of ASIC devices such as the Antminer S23 and the newer Whatsminer models increases efficiency even more, below 20 J per TH. It’s an improvement over the S21 and older series and sets a new standard for large-scale operations.
On paper, this should mean better earnings. In practice, this is not enough.
With hash prices ranging from $35 to $38 per PH per day, even these latest ASICs barely cover electricity unless you’re among those with very cheap energy.
For many operations, the “break even” is still around $40 per PH per day. Anything below that means that every hour of work works minus.
The return on investment for new ASIC devices is still over 1000 days. This is longer than there is left until the next halving.
This raises the question of whether it makes more sense to simply buy BTC than to go into mining. The answer again depends on your electricity price and setup.
J by TH remains a key metric. It shows how much energy is needed for a particular hashrate. A lower number means better efficiency, and that’s still the most important thing about ASIC devices.
Source: cointelegraph
How to check if you are in the red?
You can calculate this in 15 minutes.
First, gather the basic information.
ASIC device model and its hashrate
Efficiency in J to TH from specification
Total electricity price per kWh including any additional costs
Pool fee and any additional fees
Then estimate the daily income.
Take your total hashrate in PH or TH and multiply it by the current hash price, say $35 to $38 per PH per day. If you count in TH, $35 per PH per day is the same as $0.035 per TH per day.
Now calculate the cost of electricity.
Turn efficiency into consumption:
J per TH times the hashrate in TH divided by 1000 gives kW
Then multiply the kW by 24 and with the price of electricity per kWh.
Add about 5 to 10 percent to that due to cooling, networking and losses.
After that, do a cash flow check.
If the income is less than the cost of electricity, you work minus every day while the machines are on. Test the worse scenario. Lower the price hash by 10 percent and increase the difficulty by 10 percent. If you then go into the red, in practice you depend on the growth of the BTC price.
Finally, check the return on investment.
Take the price of the ASIC device and divide it by the daily profit after the cost. If the payback is longer than the time until the next halving, about 2.3 years, buying new hardware looks more like speculation than a stable business.
If you fail both tests, mining in that case looks more like an expensive accumulation of BTC than a viable business.
Source: cointelegraph
What do shutdowns mean for future miners and for Bitcoin?
Miner problems do not automatically mean a problem for the network.
Historically, when enough miners shut down, the difficulty drops and the remaining miners find it easier to make a profit. This cycle is a little different because the big players have cheaper electricity and better conditions, so they can last longer and slow down the process.
For anyone considering mining in 2026, the conditions are clear.
- You need really cheap electricity, around 0.05 euros per kWh or lower
- You need a new generation of ASIC devices because above 20 J per TH no longer makes sense
- You need discipline and regularly check profits, and turn off the machines when the numbers no longer hold
For Bitcoin, these waves of shutdowns have so far looked more like a reset. Hashrate and capital are shifted from less efficient to more efficient operations.
For smaller miners, the conclusion is simple. In many cases, it’s more profitable to buy BTC than to mine, unless you have a really good setup and cheap electricity.
